Greenwich Market Report · Fall 2026 Forecast

43% Sell Over Asking. 43% Sell Under. Same Town, Same Season.

Over the last three falls in Greenwich, about 43 percent of homes sold for more than the asking price. Ironically, roughly the same percentage — 43 percent — sold for less. Same town. Same season. Similar buyer demand.

By Charlie Vinci, Greenwich Realtor  ·  Updated September 14, 2026

The Headline Number

Same Town. Same Season. Two Very Different Outcomes.

I went back through every accepted offer that made it to closing in Greenwich over the last three fall seasons, because this year is tracking nearly exactly as the last three have — and they give us an excellent basis to forecast from.

What’s different about this forecast is that we didn’t focus on closing dates. We focused on when the offer was accepted. You need to know your timing, and your timing is based around when the offer is accepted, not the closing date. Here’s what I found.

43% Sold Over Asking — Three Falls Combined

43% Sold Under Asking — Three Falls Combined

13% Sold Right At Asking

Town-Wide · All Property Types	Fall 2023	Fall 2024	Fall 2025
Closed Sales	187	190	224
Median Sale Price	$1,995,000	$2,155,000	$2,500,000
Average Sale Price	$2,650,523	$3,059,539	$3,515,485
Median % of List Price	100%	100%	100%
Median Days on Market	37	40	31
Median Price / SqFt	$706	$713	$778
% Sold Over Asking	44%	46%	40%

Fall = offers accepted September 1 through December 31 that went on to close. The three-year pattern is the basis for the 2026 forecast — nothing on this page is a 2026 actual.

Single-Family vs. Condo · Three Falls Combined	Single-Family	Condo / Co-op
Closed Sales	430	171
Median Sale Price	$2,825,000	$940,000
Average Sale Price	$3,838,037	$1,251,888
Median % of List Price	100%	100%
Median Days on Market	37	37
Median Price / SqFt	$766	$676
% Sold Over Asking	42%	46%

Timing

The Fall Market Is Really Two Markets

Market One: September–October · Market Two: November–December

Most people talk about “the fall market” like it’s one market. I would suggest that you see it as two.

The first market is September and October. That’s the supply wave. Based on the last three years, I expect roughly 90 new listings in September and 85 in October.

The second market is November and December. Supply falls off significantly — expect about 33 new listings in November and maybe 17 in December.

The first market is nearly as competitive as the spring. The second market offers real opportunities for buyers, but fewer options.

Market One · Offers Accepted Sep–Oct	Fall 2023	Fall 2024	Fall 2025
Closed Sales	107	121	134
Median Sale Price	$1,850,000	$2,255,000	$2,475,000
Average Sale Price	$2,790,698	$3,145,455	$3,680,360
Median % of List Price	100%	100%	100%
Median Days on Market	36	35	26
Median Price / SqFt	$727	$704	$767
% Sold Over Asking	45%	48%	43%

Market Two · Offers Accepted Nov–Dec	Fall 2023	Fall 2024	Fall 2025
Closed Sales	80	69	90
Median Sale Price	$2,100,000	$1,990,000	$2,536,500
Average Sale Price	$2,463,039	$2,908,873	$3,270,006
Median % of List Price	100%	98%	100%
Median Days on Market	39	44	41
Median Price / SqFt	$659	$729	$825
% Sold Over Asking	43%	43%	37%

Your Price Point

Where You Sit May Matter More Than When You Buy or Sell

Expected share of homes selling over asking this fall, by price bracket

Now let’s talk about your price point, because where you sit may matter more than when you buy or sell. Here’s the expected percentage of homes that will sell over-ask this fall, depending on which price bracket they sit in.

So the hottest segment of the market is under three million. If that’s your range, understand what you’re walking into. Above three million, you are in a noticeably cooler market — however, the best homes will still go over asking.

By Price Bracket · Activity	Closed Sales	% Over Asking	Median % of List	Median Days
Under $1M	122	50%	100%	43
$1M–$2M	161	54%	100%	28
$2M–$3M	110	44%	100%	26
$3M–$5M	111	35%	98%	36
$5M–$10M	75	29%	97%	44
$10M+	22	14%	95%	138

By Price Bracket · Prices	Median Sale Price	Average Sale Price	Median $/SqFt
Under $1M	$750,000	$717,145	$579
$1M–$2M	$1,458,000	$1,475,761	$678
$2M–$3M	$2,497,500	$2,473,797	$781
$3M–$5M	$3,995,000	$3,938,192	$836
$5M–$10M	$6,500,000	$6,814,974	$861
$10M+	$12,090,500	$14,498,159	$1,184

Brackets are by closing price. Homes that closed at exactly a bracket edge count in the higher bracket.

Days on Market

How Much Over Asking — Depending on How Long It Sat

Median sale price as a % of the original asking price, by days on market

Let’s take a look at how much over the original asking price homes sell for, depending on how many days the home is on the market.

In the first 7 days, 62% are expected to sell over asking, at a median of 103.3% of the original asking price.

If you thought more time on the market would lead to a lower price, that’s not exactly true — because if the home goes under contract between days 8 and 14, 85% sell over asking, and for a median of 105.6% of the original asking price.

So if you’re a buyer, getting a home under contract quickly has a real advantage. But for sellers, holding out during the first two weeks is the better play. Sellers should shoot to have your offer accepted around the 10-day mark to be in the sweet spot.

How about 15–30 days on market? 54% are expected to go over asking, at a median of 101% of the original asking price.

31–60 days is where buyers begin to get a discount — 39% are still expected to go over asking, but the median price drops to 99.1% of the original asking price.

For my value seekers: on days 61–90, the typical home is expected to sell at 94.4% of the original asking price. And you do a little better if the home is over 91 days, with a median of 91.4% of the original asking price.

By Days on Market	Closed Sales	% Over Asking	Median % of Original Ask	Median % of Final Ask	Median Sale Price
Days 1–7	65	62%	103.3%	103.3%	$2,495,000
Days 8–14	96	85%	105.6%	105.6%	$1,997,500
Days 15–30	111	54%	101.0%	101.0%	$1,950,000
Days 31–60	129	39%	99.1%	100.0%	$1,900,000
Days 61–90	56	29%	94.4%	97.9%	$1,753,750
Day 91+	143	8%	91.4%	95.6%	$3,000,000

“Original ask” is the price the home first came on at; “final ask” is the last price before the contract, after any reductions. Days on market counts from listing to signed contract.

Some homes sit for a reason. Bad layout, hard site, a price that was never real. Your agent’s job is to tell you which is which.