Darien Market Forecast

46%. 54%. 63%. Darien's Fall Market Has A Direction.

Three years ago in Darien, 46 percent of fall buyers paid over asking. Two years ago, 54. And last year, it was 63 percent.

By Charlie Vinci, Darien Realtor

I went back through every accepted offer in Darien that made it to closing over the last three fall seasons. But rather than focusing on closing dates, I focused on when the offer was accepted. Closing dates tell you nothing, while accepted-offer dates reflect the actual time you are making a decision.

Here's what I found.

In Darien this fall, the gap between buying well and buying badly isn't measured in weeks. It's measured in about seventeen points of purchase price.

If we haven't already met, my name is Charlie Vinci. On my website you'll find current Darien listings, market data, a home valuation tool, and a full guide if you're relocating or still learning the area. Call me if you need honest advice about your purchase or sale.

What's Actually Coming To Market

Averaging the last three falls, I expect about 29 new listings in September. 18 in October. 9 in November. And perhaps just 3 in December.

And the number of new listings has been shrinking. November went from 12, to 11, then to 5. And December went from 5, to 3, and most recently to 1.

The simple story is fewer homes, and more buyers over asking, three years in a row.

The Two Weeks In September That Decide Your Price

But the monthly numbers hide something, so here's what buyers and sellers need to know.

In the first half of September, 79 percent of Darien homes sold over asking. In the second half of the same month, it dropped to 50 percent. Two weeks apart has meant a twenty-nine point swing.

The first two weeks of September are, besides early March, the most competitive stretch of the entire year in this town. If you are a seller, that is your window. If you are a buyer, that's probably the time where you want to be patient.

Your Price Point May Matter More Than Your Timing

Here's the percentage of Darien homes expected to sell over asking this fall, by bracket:

Share of Darien homes selling over asking, by price band

The heart of this market — one to three million — is where you will be competing hardest. If that's your range, know it walking in.

And here is the mismatch I want you to see. Five million and up sold over asking just 10 percent of the time. That is the widest gap between where the inventory sits and where the buyers are that I see anywhere in the Gold Coast.

If you are shopping at the top of this market, you have leverage, but you might not know it if you are looking at a typical market report.

What Happens To Price As A Home Sits

Here is the median sale price as a percentage of the original ask, by how long the home was on the market before the offer was accepted. The vertical line is 100 percent — the original asking price.

Median sale price as a share of original ask — 100% = asking price

So if you're selling, your leverage peaks around day ten to twelve. If you're buying, everything past day sixty is a different conversation.

Plan Around The Trend

Three straight falls of more competition and less inventory. That trend is real and you should plan around it.

Some of those homes sit because of price. Some because of layout, and sometimes they sit because of bad luck on the seller's part, or poor market timing. They are completely different situations, and telling them apart is your agent's job.