Seventy-eight new condos are coming one block off Greenwich Avenue in downtown Greenwich. Most of them will be priced over four million dollars. Last year, this whole town sold just eleven condos over four million.
And if you're at the lower end of the condo market, say under a million or so, you're not out of this either. There's a different kind of supply coming for you, and I'll show you what you should be concerned about.
We'll look at what's actually happening in the condo market today, what's coming, when it lands, and what I'd do about it if I owned one.
My name is Charlie Vinci. I am a Greenwich Realtor who has helped hundreds of families in Connecticut's Gold Coast.
The Top of the Condo Market Took Off
I started breaking apart the condo metrics, and I got to thinking.
While the middle of the condo market went sideways, the top took off. In the seven years before 2024, Greenwich sold just 11 condos over four million dollars. In the last 12 months alone, it was 11.
Which means the kind of sale this town used to see once or twice a year is now happening about once a month.
Chart 1
Greenwich condo sales over $4M, per year
I'm feeling real pressure on this market from New Yorkers who are fed up, and boomers who don't need the big house anymore.
What the High-End Condo Market Is Facing
Coming Supply
Mason Street
Two buildings on Mason Street, a block off Greenwich Avenue. Seventy-eight residences. The units listed so far run from $4.25 million to $12.2 million. Delivery is expected around the end of 2028, but will likely slip into 2029.
Some of the 78 are below-market units required under state law. Set those aside and you still have roughly fifty-plus condos priced over four million, all to be sold between 2026 and 2029.
Even at last year's record pace of eleven sales a year, that's nearly five years of supply, assuming no other $4M-plus units came to the market.
Chart 2
New $4M+ supply vs. one record year of sales
Coming Supply
Milbank Avenue
But that's not the case. Two new condos on Milbank Avenue just listed at just under six million each.
Coming Supply
Greenwich Avenue
Twelve more units were approved on Greenwich Avenue last year.
We have no precedent in Greenwich for this many high-end condos landing at once.
So if you own a three, four, five million dollar condo here, and your plan was to sell in the next few years, I would suggest you do it now.
The Lower End Has Real Challenges Coming Too
But it's not like the high-end market is my only concern. The lower end has real challenges coming too.
The 30-year mortgage was 7.40 percent in October. A year ago, it was 6.34. Which means the same monthly payment that carried a million-dollar loan last fall buys about $894 thousand today. That's about 10.6 percent less buying power.
Chart 3
What the same monthly payment buys
And entry-level buyers are about to have a new option. A lot of them.
About 290 new apartments are approved or under construction. 120 at Benedict Court downtown, due in 2028. 170 on King Street, waiting on sewer approvals. Roughly 300 more are proposed.
Chart 4
The rental wave coming to Greenwich
A Wave of Rentals, Not Condos
When discussing this with a renter recently, she said to me, and I quote, "Why would I buy a condo when I can rent for cheaper and see what happens?"
On the low end of the market, the supply issue is going to be a wave of rentals, not condos.
With rising prices and rising rates, affordability for entry-level buyers is already a challenge. And soon there will be a wave of rental inventory hitting the market.
What does a developer do when they need to move lots of rental units? That's right, they are going to offer deals. And your buyer never shows up.
What does a developer do when they need to move lots of rental units? They offer deals. And your buyer never shows up.
What I'd Do If I Owned a Condo Here
The good news is that today is a strong market for condo sellers, but the coming years will feel the law of supply and demand.
If you own a condo here, and it's not something you plan to keep 5 or 10 years, it's time to seriously consider selling.
Know Where Your Condo Stands Before the Supply Lands
The Greenwich page has the latest market report, current listings, and the numbers behind this post, all in one place. Use it to see how today's condo sales compare before the new buildings and rentals hit the market.
Thinking about selling? Call or text me at 203-952-7752, or email charlievinci@gmail.com.
See the Greenwich Market