Greenwich Market Insight
The Greenwich Fall 2026 Forecast: Two Markets, Not One
Over the last three falls in Greenwich, about 43 percent of homes sold for more than the asking price. Ironically, roughly the same percentage, 43 percent, sold for less. Same town. Same season. Similar buyer demand.
I went back through every accepted offer that made it to closing in Greenwich over the last three fall seasons. This year is tracking nearly exactly as the last three have, and they give us an excellent basis to forecast from.
What's different about this forecast is that we didn't focus on closing dates, we focused on when the offer was accepted. Because you need to know your timing, which is based around when the offer is accepted, rather than the closing date.
Here's what I found.
How you play this market matters just as much as it does in the spring, but there is a lot more to win or lose depending on which side of the fence you sit on.
Most People Talk About "The Fall Market." There Are Two.
Most people talk about "the fall market" like it's one market. I would suggest that you see it as two.
Market One
September and October: The Supply Wave
That's the supply wave. Based on the last three years, I expect roughly 90 new listings in September and 85 in October. The first market is nearly as competitive as the spring.
Market Two
November and December: Supply Falls Off
Supply falls off significantly, and is expected to be about 33 in November and maybe 17 new listings in December. The second market offers real opportunities for buyers, but fewer options.
Expected new listings, by month
Greenwich, fall 2026 forecast. The supply wave crests in September and is largely gone by December.
Based on the last three fall seasons in Greenwich.
Your Price Point May Matter More Than Your Timing
Now let's talk about your price point, because where you sit may matter more than when you buy or sell. Here's the expected percentage of homes that will sell over-ask this fall, depending on which price bracket they sit in.
Share of homes expected to sell over asking, by price band
Each band is measured on its own. These are six separate rates, not slices of one market.
Greenwich accepted offers, last three fall seasons.
So the hottest segment of the market is under three million. If that's your range, understand what you're walking into. Above three million, you are in a noticeably cooler market, however the best homes will still go over asking.
What Days on Market Actually Does to Your Price
Let's take a look at how much over the original asking price homes sell for, depending on how many days the home is on the market.
Median sale price as a share of the original asking price
Measured from the day the offer was accepted. The center line is 100% — full original ask. Bars to the right sold above it; bars to the left sold below.
Greenwich accepted offers, last three fall seasons.
In the first 7 days, 62% are expected to sell over asking, at a median of 103.3% of the original asking price.
If you thought more time on the market would lead to a lower price, that's not exactly true. If the home goes under contract between days 8 and 14, 85% sell over asking, and for a median of 105.6% of the original asking price.
Share of homes selling over asking, days 1 through 60
The second week is the peak — not the first.
Greenwich accepted offers, last three fall seasons.
How about 15–30 days on market? 54% are expected to go over asking at a median of 101% of the original asking price.
31–60 days is where buyers begin to get a discount, with 39% still expected to go over asking, but the median price dropping to 99.1% of the original asking price.
For my value seekers, on days 61–90 the typical home is expected to sell at 94.4% of the original asking price. And you do a little better if the home is over 91 days, with a median of 91.4% of the original asking price.
The Play for Each Side
So if you're a buyer, getting a home under contract quickly has a real advantage, but for sellers, holding out during the first two weeks is the better play.
Sellers should shoot to have your offer accepted around the 10 day mark to be in the sweet spot.
The most important thing to remember about the fall is, deals ARE coming.
Some homes sit for a reason. Bad layout, hard site, a price that was never real. Your agent's job is to tell you which is which.
Want Me to Help You Play This Market?
On my Greenwich page you'll find current listings, market data, a home valuation tool, and information for buyers who are relocating or learning about the area. If you'd rather talk it through, call me at 203-952-7752.
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