Greenwich Market Insight
Why the Greenwich Market Data You're Reading Probably Doesn't Apply to You
If you're reading the Greenwich market data and thinking it applies to you, the odds are you're wrong. What you see is: prices are up, inventory is tight, it's a seller's market. But that's not necessarily true.
It's a universal response, and you're making a seven- or eight-figure decision on it.
The truth is that the market is more nuanced than that, and you know it. You can feel it. You even see it when you find a house and ask yourself, why didn't this house conform to the market data?
To be frank, I can't answer that question for every house. But what follows will give you a clearer picture of the Greenwich market, and I promise you'll never see it the same way again.
If this is the first time we're meeting, my name is Charlie Vinci. I'm a Greenwich realtor, and I keep my own database of this market — every listing, every sale, every price cut — so I can analyze it in depth for you.
Why My Numbers Don't Match the Ones You'll See Elsewhere
It's not because their data is wrong. It's that it takes a tremendous amount of effort to fix the problem.
Greenwich runs on two different listing systems. There's the Greenwich MLS — it's local, the one Greenwich Realtors like myself have used for decades — and there's the larger statewide system that most of Connecticut uses.
It's my opinion that if you wanted to give your client the most exposure possible, you'd list on both. But that's not always what happens. Some homes are only listed on one or the other.
That creates a problem. It's incredibly difficult to deduplicate the listings because of subtle differences in the address, the start and end dates, and so on. So when you see a market stat online, you're often looking at numbers that are either double-counted, or pulled from just one system and missing half the picture.
My team and I have fixed that. We've deduplicated every listing across both MLS systems, which creates the most accurate version of the market. It's tedious, unglamorous work, and I don't know anyone else who does it.
It's the difference between a number you can bet a seven-figure decision on, and a number that just sounds about right.
There Are Four Distinct Markets in Greenwich
Looking at the data, I can see four distinct markets in Greenwich, and you have to know which one you're in. Here's a big-picture understanding of all four and how they differ.
Market One
The Condo Market
Historically, the condo market has had more supply than comparably priced single-family homes, and it's also more likely to be listed on only one of the MLS systems. The compound effect: if you were looking for a more affordable single-family home in town, you'd go in assuming the market was slower than it actually is. And if you were shopping for a condo, you'd go in thinking the market was more brisk — and that's assuming you had condo-specific data, which is rare.
Market Two
The Mainstream Single-Family Market
Prices will change over time, but currently this is single-family homes in the roughly $1.5M to $4M range. This segment is incredibly brisk, and if you're shopping in it, you feel it. The market data as a whole does not give you a clear picture of what you're in for.
To be frank, if you want a good home in Greenwich, you don't need to spend more than $4M. But if you wanted something above average in town, you'd shop in the next segment.
Market Three
The Premium Market
This market typically ranges from $5M to $10M. Notice I left out the $4M to $5M range — that's because it's a fuzzy transition, and the house and location weigh heavily on which market you'd fall into. The premium market is a strong market, but it's not as intense as the mainstream market. Demand is real — just calmer than the frenzy below it.
Market Four
The High-End Market
$10M and up. This is where the mainstream market data is completely useless. It's a different world. It's a buyer's market for now. If you find a great value, move on it — but otherwise, buyers usually have time and real negotiation leverage.
Want the Numbers for Your Specific Segment?
I know you want to know what the metrics look like for your segment, and I want to deliver on that. So here's what I'm going to do: in the first week of July, I'll have data for the first half of 2026, broken down into these four market segments, so you can see exactly what your market looks like.
Here's how to get the data early. If you sign up on my website and do a quick search of Greenwich properties, I'll give you early access by email. Otherwise, keep an eye out for it — and as always, give me a call if you want to discuss your plans.
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