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Should you buy a home this spring? You know what, It depends. I talk to dozens of new home buyers every month, and it's likely that you fall into one of two camps. Either you are fearful about everything that you are hearing right now, and it's keeping you from pulling the trigger, or you have a genuine need to buy right now, and you are trying to figure out how to navigate this crazy market.

Either way, in this Fairfield County CT Market Report I’ll give you the facts so that you can make the best decision for you and your family.

Hi, my name is Charlie Vinci and I am a lower Fairfield County Realtor.

Before we start out, let me say that I know you listen to the news, and there is a lot of negative information about the economy right now. My mission is to bring you the facts about what's happening in our local real estate market so that you can make the best decision.

Table of Contents:

Market Recap & Closed Sales

To begin, let's briefly recap what has happened in Fairfield County Connecticut. While I am addressing the county as a whole, you may want to also watch the latest town specific market reports.

Throughout the fall, total closed sales in Fairfield County were pretty close to our pre-covid years of 2017 to 2019. The high inventory during the years prior to Covid kept prices relatively stable.

You will probably also want to know that the peak number of closed sales is typically in June or July. Considering that it usually takes about 2 months to close, this means the most offers will be accepted in April or May. 

New Listings

The interesting thing is that April or May is typically the month that we see the highest number of new listings come to the market. So when there is a larger selection, there is also a larger number of sales, AND more competition. 

Since most buyers gravitate to the best listings, the competition means multiple offers on the best properties. The more offers, the more likely that the house will sell for at or above the listing price. This isn't a new trend. Even before covid we can see that the average percentage of list price paid is correlated with peak sales. 

Where are we now?

Let's take a step back and look at the Fairfield County CT Real Estate Market. We have come out of a very brisk fall season and the median percentage of list price is still holding at 100% for the county. So half of the homes sold for more than 100% of their asking price in the fall. I should point out that we normally see the percentage of list price earned by sellers drop in the Winter, which makes this even more impressive. The percentage of list price earned by sellers usually hits rock bottom in February. However, you would likely need to have had your offer accepted back in December to close by February.

So where are we now? Inventory is near the all time low since the statewide MLS has been collecting data, and we are selling about the same number of homes that we did before covid. (mo of supply, line, max , monthly)

What is going to happen in the Spring?

So I guess the real question is, what's going to happen this spring? 

Currently, mortgage rates are hovering in the mid to low 6’s. And with rates previously being around 3% for so long, just about every homeowner has purchased or refinanced somewhere around 3%. If they decide to upgrade to a more expensive home right now and increase their mortgage by just 40%, because of the higher rates, it would double their payment. How many sellers do you think are going to want to do this?

My personal experience with sellers is that they currently have a strong resistance to giving up their low interest rate loan unless they absolutely must sell. My fellow agents are telling me that they are experiencing the same thing. Fortunately, not everyone needs to finance, but this is clearly going to limit supply.

Add to this that the mortgage brokers association just released data showing that demand for mortgages increased by 28% in January, likely due to the recent drop in interest rates, and we have a recipe for another intense spring. 

You should be prepared for multiple offers on any good new listing. It probably won't be as bad as last year because buyers seem more cautious this time around, but over-asking offers are coming to a town near you. My question is, are you prepared to compete?

How to compete moving into 2023.

On the hottest listings, the winning bidders have been the ones who can offer over asking AND offer cash, or at least be willing to remove their mortgage contingency. 

The risk with removing your mortgage contingency is that if you don't get the loan, you may have to forfeit your deposit.

You can lessen that risk by having your bank fully approve your finances prior to making an offer. This is a several week process and it's more involved than the pre-approval they normally give. Many of our buyers found this to be an acceptable solution last spring. 

It's also not a bad idea to have a back up plan like borrowing from your 401K, stocks, or perhaps a relative, and I would recommend that you start working on it now.

If you are working with us, or plan to, give me a call so I can walk you through it. 

Wrap-Up:

If you are thinking about buying or selling, call me, I would like to help you. In the meantime, head over to my site to take a look at the market data, grab our raved about buyers guide or search for homes.

I look forward to hearing from you!

Best,

Charlie Vinci

Fairfield County CT Realtor

203.952.7752

charlievinci@gmail.com

About the Author:

Charlie Vinci, the Founder and Lead Agent of the Charlie Vinci Team has become a mainstay in Connecticut’s real estate market, earning accolades as one of the top 3% of realtors within the state. Fueled by a dedication to the success of his clients and an ever-growing assortment of area-specific resources, the business continues to thrive in the constantly evolving real estate marketplace. An informative YouTube presence has been the primary driver/focus for the team, as it has allowed Charlie to engage directly with his audience and provide a consultative approach to an often ambiguous process. Whether an international client seeking relocation to the US or a local homeowner considering the sale of their property, The Charlie Vinci Team has the market knowledge, resources, and expedient level of service that clients not only desire, but deserve.

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