Westport Fall Forecast

Westport's Market Is Slipping. That Could Make This Fall the Best Buying Opportunity in Years.

Three falls ago, 44% of homes in Westport sold over asking. Last fall? It was 32%.

Which got me wondering why Westport's market is slipping while the other high-end towns are white hot.

So I pulled every Westport closing over the last three fall seasons. And I dated each one to the day the offer was accepted, not the day it closed — because a closing date tells you when someone got the keys, and you need to know what's happening at the time you're making a decision.

Here's what it said.

Westport Is the One Town Moving the Other Way

Three falls ago, all four high-end towns were sitting at about the same number — right around 44 percent of homes selling over asking. Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, Westport.

Look where they went. Westport fell to 33.

Westport is also the only one of the four where homes moved slower — median days to accepted offer went from 32, to 34, and up to 45 last fall. Everywhere else got faster.

Westport: median days to accepted offer
32 days
Three falls ago
34 days
Two falls ago
45 days
Last fall

Source: Charlie Vinci Team analysis of Westport closings over the last three fall seasons, dated to the day the offer was accepted.

Let's dig into why this is happening, and why this fall might be the best opportunity that Westport buyers have seen in years.

The Commute Is Back

For a few years there, Westport's extra fifteen or twenty minutes didn't cost much of anything. If you were going into the city once a week, the ride was a rounding error, and you got more land and more house for the money by sitting a few stops further out.

That math has changed. More people are going in three days a week now, some four. And when the commute goes from occasional to routine, those fifteen or twenty minutes each way start feeling like a burden.

I could feel the interest shift about two years ago. Fewer and fewer people were willing to go further up the line, and when I asked why, it was the commute. The towns closer in don't have the same tax on time.

This Isn't Doom and Gloom

Now the part that matters. This isn't all doom and gloom. It's not like the bottom has fallen out of Westport's market. But it is easier to buy here than the other high-end towns. So if you don't have the commute pressure, or don't mind the time on the train, Westport should be on your list.

It is easier to buy here than the other high-end towns.

What to Expect in Westport This Fall

Based on the last three falls, expect roughly 49 new listings in September, 38 in October, 21 in November, and 12 in December.

Westport: expected new listings this fall
49
September
38
October
21
November
12
December

Source: Charlie Vinci Team analysis of Westport closings over the last three fall seasons, dated to the day the offer was accepted.

And the market will act differently depending on your price point. Under one million, 38 percent are expected to sell over asking. One to two million: 45 percent. Two to three million: 47 percent. Three to five million: 29 percent. Five million and up: 22 percent.

Westport: expected share selling over asking, by price point
Under $1M
38%
$1M – $2M
45%
$2M – $3M
47%
$3M – $5M
29%
$5M and up
22%

Source: Charlie Vinci Team analysis of Westport closings over the last three fall seasons, dated to the day the offer was accepted.

So the strongest part of the Westport market is one to three million. That's where the buyers are stacked up.

The Proof That Demand Is Still Real

Here's the proof that, while this market is cooling, demand is still real.

In the first seven days, 88 percent of Westport homes sold over asking during the last three falls, at a median of 106.1 percent of the original ask. Days 8 through 14: 78 percent over asking, at 106.7 percent. Days 15 to 30: 54 percent, at 101.2 percent. Days 31 to 60: 24 percent, and the median falls to 97.5 percent. Days 61 to 90: 23 percent, at 95.4 percent. Past 91 days: about 10 percent, and a median of 91.4 percent.

Westport: share sold over asking, by days on market
First 7 days
88%
Median: 106.1% of original ask
Days 8–14
78%
Median: 106.7% of original ask
Days 15–30
54%
Median: 101.2% of original ask
Days 31–60
24%
Median: 97.5% of original ask
Days 61–90
23%
Median: 95.4% of original ask
91+ days
10%
About 10% · Median: 91.4% of original ask

Source: Charlie Vinci Team analysis of Westport closings over the last three fall seasons, dated to the day the offer was accepted.

What It Means for Your Move

If You're Selling

Win the first two weeks

If you're selling, the outcome is made by the decisions you make before the first showing. Try and push your fears aside, prepare it properly and price it to sell the first two weeks. I would recommend that you call me a year in advance to start preparing for the sale.

If You're Buying

Go in with your eyes open

If you're buying, go in with your eyes open. Some of those homes have been sitting for ninety days because the price was never real, but some will be a real opportunity. Telling those two apart is the entire job, and it's the reason you hire me.

Telling those two apart is the entire job, and it's the reason you hire me.

Know Which Westport Homes Are Real Opportunities

If we haven't already met, I'm Charlie Vinci. My Westport page has current listings, market data, a home valuation tool, and a full relocation guide if you're still learning the area — everything you need to tell a real opportunity from a stale price.

Call me if you want help: 203-952-7752.

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