Gold Coast Market Timing
When Should You Buy? The Question That Never Gets Asked
When should you buy? It might be the most commonly asked question… that never gets asked. And if that doesn't sound like an oxymoron, wait until I do my best to explain our market.
Prefer to watch? See the full breakdown on YouTube.
There Is No Data That Actually Describes This Market
I have found that there is no data which can actually describe our market. Why? Because when you are in the market for dozens of cycles, over several decades, the true color of the data reveals itself.
I am going to do my very best to describe it to you today, so you can make the best buying or selling decision possible.
If we haven't already met, my name is Charlie Vinci. This site is chock full of advice and tools for buyers and sellers here in Connecticut's Gold Coast. And in the coming weeks, I am going to follow this up with forecasts for the fall 2026 market in Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan and Westport.
So let me paint the market, from an agent's perspective, to help you make the best decision about when to buy or sell.
The Spring Market Starts in February — Not April
In the spring, waves of buyers hit the market. More of them, by far, than the total number of homes we have available to sell. So the ones who win the 50–75% of homes that will sell over asking — most in the first week — are the buyers who are the most competitive with their offer.
Lots can be done to structure a competitive offer. I could write a whole series on it, but that's why you hire me.
I would say that our spring market actually starts in February, about mid-month, because that's when the offers are typically accepted for April sales. Notice that most reports would suggest the spring market starts in April, but as a buyer or seller, you are beginning to feel the market when the offer is accepted, not when the home closes.
The biggest flaw in how people read the data is by focusing on the closing date, not when the offer is accepted.
The Year, Month by Month
February – June
The Spring Market Intensifies
After February, each month intensifies. The competition builds, and the new listings are priced upon the comparable sales before it, pushing prices up.
Buyers also procrastinate. They believe better inventory will come. They hold out. The problem is that intensity builds. Other buyers have been beaten out of multiple bid situations, and so they come back on the next one even stronger.
The spring market is also fed by the need to have the kids settled in the new school district prior to the school year starting. It's so important that many people pay tens — even hundreds — of thousands for the privilege. But you don't have to. Because I am going to tell you how to avoid all of it.
July – August
Demand Falls Off — Temporarily
In July and August, the market cools off considerably. The home that would have been bid up by multiple offers sits. But buyers mistakenly see this as nobody wants the house, instead of here's an opportunity that I could take advantage of. And it's understandable — especially if you were shopping in the spring market, where your signs of a good house were the ones that had multiple offers and sold on the first weekend.
But what really has happened in July and August is that the buyer demand has fallen off. Temporarily. It will come back. In fact, many homes that have been sitting this summer will go fast after Labor Day.
Buyers will see that there is real value in these homes and they can actually get the sellers to work with them, rather than having to bid the home up and compete with other buyers.
September – October
The Fall May Be Your Best Opportunity
Right after Labor Day, inventory picks up, which means you will have more options to choose from. But demand isn't quite as intense as the spring. This means that fewer homes will receive multiple offers.
If you want a good deal, the ones you don't compete on are where you will likely find it. Just use the sales comps and your agent to help determine value.
November – December
Thin Inventory, Fewer Rivals
So what about November and December? Everyone knows that's the best time to buy, right? Well, yes… but the inventory will be so thin that there won't be much to choose from.
If you are a buyer, I would strongly encourage you to stay diligent during November and December — but most won't. They will be discouraged by the lack of new options, and most will fade into the background until things pick up the following year. Which is exactly why you will find opportunity if you persist in November and December.
January
Get Competitive Before the Market Does
I already told you that the spring market starts in February. So what about January? The truth is that prices will increase in January, because so does the competition. But I want you to see it from a different perspective.
Spring is just around the corner, and the vast majority of price increases are also just around the corner. Get competitive before the market does, and you will be sitting in equity while the market chases ever-increasing prices into the summer months so they can get their kids in school.
Let the Facts Tell You What It's Worth
All the best deals I have secured for my buyers have been achieved when we didn't have to compete.
If you want to know if you are getting a good value, rather than relying on buyer frenzy — which can be manufactured — try looking at the facts. The sales data.
Yes, you will need a good agent to help. There is too much nuance, which is why even the best analysts can make mistakes. But when the data supports the price, or perhaps even a higher price than what you can negotiate, that is a great deal in this market. Because most buyers are throwing out the data and trying to figure out the price that will get the home. That's how you get burned.
Real Advisory, Where the Facts Get Spoken
My fall 2026 forecasts for Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan and Westport are coming in the next few weeks — town-level reads on inventory, competition and where the opportunity actually sits this season.
And if you want real advisory, where the facts get spoken so you can make the best decisions possible, call me at 203-952-7752.
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